All Outputs (17)

An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics (2016)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., McHale, I., Sanz, I., & de Tena, J. (2017). An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics. European Sport Management Quarterly, 17(2), 117-131. https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2016.1248463

Research question: Several studies report modelling relating countries’ medal shares at the Olympics to population and per capita income (host status and political system are typically included as controls). This paper uses a similar model but disagg... Read More about An analysis of country medal shares in individual sports at the Olympics.

The compatriot win effect on national sales of a multicountry lottery (2016)
Journal Article
Baker, R., Forrest, D., & Perez, L. (2016). The compatriot win effect on national sales of a multicountry lottery. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 65(4), 603-618. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12143

Euromillions is a lotto game played across nine countries.We examine more than 8
years of sales data for individual states to assess whether a jackpot win in a country increases
subsequent sales in that country.We propose a novel test for the prese... Read More about The compatriot win effect on national sales of a multicountry lottery.

Just like the lottery? Player behaviour and anomalies in the market for football pools (2015)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., & Pérez, L. (2015). Just like the lottery? Player behaviour and anomalies in the market for football pools. Journal of Gambling Studies, 31(2), 471-482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10899-013-9423-4

Football pools were an antecedent to lotto in providing a long-odds, high-prize gambling opportunity for a mass market in Europe. Even after lotto has become well established, pools games continue to occupy a significant niche in the gaming market in... Read More about Just like the lottery? Player behaviour and anomalies in the market for football pools.

Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issues and a case study from Spain (2014)
Journal Article
and a case study from Spain. Papers in Regional Science, 95(S1), S127-S142. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12118

Sales are modelled for 50 Spanish provinces over 522 draws of a high prize lotto
game.Acrossed random effects model allows for random shocks specific to particular draws and
to particular provinces. The paper explores how demographic and socio-econ... Read More about Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issues and a case study from Spain.

Impact of importing foreign talent on performance levels of local co-workers (2011)
Journal Article
Alvarez, J., Forrest, D., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. (2011). Impact of importing foreign talent on performance levels of local co-workers. Labour Economics, 18(3), 287-296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2010.11.003

When skilled labour is imported to work in a creative industry, local workers may benefit, in terms of their
own level of skill, through contact with new techniques and practices. European basketball offers an
opportunity to investigate the reality... Read More about Impact of importing foreign talent on performance levels of local co-workers.

Forecasting national team medal totals at the summer olympic games (2010)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. (2010). Forecasting national team medal totals at the summer olympic games. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), 576-588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.007

The paper reports the results of an exercise to forecast national team medal totals at the Beijing Olympic Games, 2008.
Forecasts were released to the media before the competitions commenced. The starting point was an established statistical
model... Read More about Forecasting national team medal totals at the summer olympic games.

The relationship between betting and lottery play (2010)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Gulley, O., & Simmons, R. (2010). The relationship between betting and lottery play. Economic Inquiry, 48(1), 26-38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1465-7295.2008.00123.x

We apply a novel daily time series data set of daily turnover from one of Britain’s
leading bookmakers to analyze potential substitution between lottery play and
bookmaker betting. We find some evidence that bettors do substitute away from horse
r... Read More about The relationship between betting and lottery play.

The 12th man?: refereeing bias in English and German soccer (2010)
Journal Article
German soccer. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 173(2), 431-449. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2009.00604.x

The paper investigates potential bias in awards of player disciplinary sanctions, in
the form of cautions (yellow cards) and dismissals (red cards) by referees in the English Premier
League and the German Bundesliga. Previous studies of behaviour o... Read More about The 12th man?: refereeing bias in English and German soccer.

Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain (2010)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Perez, L., & Baker, R. (2010). Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain. ˜The œjournal of gambling business and economics (Print), 4(2), 1-19

In February, 2005 the Spanish National Lottery Agency (LAE) made several modifications to the design of one of its lotto games. The entry fee was not changed but the familiar 6/49 format was replaced by 5/54 + 1/10. This considerably lengthened the o... Read More about Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain.

Insights for clubs from modelling match attendance in football (2009)
Journal Article
Buraimo, B., Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2009). Insights for clubs from modelling match attendance in football. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 60(2), 147-155. https://doi.org/10.1057/palgrave.jors.2602549

The paper employs data from 2884 matches in the English Football League Championship. It builds a model of
determinants of attendance designed to yield results relevant to decision-taking at individual clubs. The model
has two innovatory features.... Read More about Insights for clubs from modelling match attendance in football.

Freedom of entry, market size and competitive outcome : evidence from English soccer (2007)
Journal Article
Buraimo, B., Forrest, D., & Simmons, R. (2007). Freedom of entry, market size and competitive outcome : evidence from English soccer. Southern Economic Journal, 74(1), 204-213

The paper tests, in the context of an open sports league, whether greater success is achieved by clubs in markets with larger populations. The relationship is strong but, to a limited extent, mitigated by more clubs establishing in large markets.

Anyone for tennis (betting)? (2007)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., & Mchale, I. (2007). Anyone for tennis (betting)?. European Journal of Finance, 13(8), 751-768. https://doi.org/10.1080/13518470701705736

The most robust anomaly noted in the literature on wagering markets is (positive) longshot bias: over a period of 50 years, it has been well documented in horse betting that higher expected returns accrue to short- than to long-odds bets. However, a... Read More about Anyone for tennis (betting)?.

Within-season dismissal of football coaches: statistical analysis of causes and consequences (2007)
Journal Article
de Dios Tena, J., & Forrest, D. (2007). Within-season dismissal of football coaches: statistical analysis of causes and consequences. European Journal of Operational Research, 181(1), 362-373. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2006.05.024

The paper examines the triggers for, and, consequences of, within-season dismissals of managers (head coaches) in the top division of the Spanish Football League during seasons 2002–2003 to 2004–2005. A major reason for directors deciding on dismissa... Read More about Within-season dismissal of football coaches: statistical analysis of causes and consequences.

The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments (2005)
Journal Article
McHale, I., & Forrest, D. (2005). The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16(2), 131-140. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi005

In many fields of forecasting, practitioners face the problem of how to distinguish signal from noise in recent news. As an illustration of how one might approach the problem we examine, in the context of golf, the extent to which recent players' sco... Read More about The importance of recent scores in a forecasting model for professional golf tournaments.

Odd-setters as forecasters: the case of English football (2005)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Goddard, J., & Simmons, R. (2005). Odd-setters as forecasters: the case of English football. International Journal of Forecasting, 21(3), 551-564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2005.03.003

Sets of odds issued by bookmakers may be interpreted as incorporating implicit probabilistic forecasts of sporting events. Employing a sample of nearly 10 000 English football (soccer) games, we compare the effectiveness of forecasts based on publish... Read More about Odd-setters as forecasters: the case of English football.

A spatial cross-sectional analysis of the elasticity of demand for soccer (2002)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Simmons, R., & Feehan, P. (2002). A spatial cross-sectional analysis of the elasticity of demand for soccer. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 49(3), 336-355. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9485.00235

Several studies estimate the demand for watching English professional football (soccer) as highly inelastic, a puzzling result given that clubs appear to possess a degree of monopoly power. We discuss weaknesses in earlier studies and offer an altern... Read More about A spatial cross-sectional analysis of the elasticity of demand for soccer.

Buying a dream: alternative models for demand for lotto (2002)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Simmons, R., & Chesters, N. (2002). Buying a dream: alternative models for demand for lotto. Economic Inquiry, 40(3), 485-496. https://doi.org/10.1093/ei/40.3.485

Existing lotto demand models utilize effective price, computed as the face value of a ticket minus the expected value of prize money per ticket, as their primary explanatory variable. By contrast, this article proposes a key role for consumption bene... Read More about Buying a dream: alternative models for demand for lotto.