The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball

Baker, R; Chadwick, S; Parma, R; Scarf, P

Abstract

We introduce the binomial-match as a model for the bivariate score in a paired-contest. This model is naturally associated with sports in which the restart alternates following a goal. The model is a challenger to the Poisson-match, a pair of independent Poisson random variables whose means are related to the strengths of the competing teams. We use the binomial-match primarily to study the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate, particularly for high values of the scoring-rate. Netball has a high scoring-rate and motivates our model development. In the binomial-match framework, we also evaluate rule-variations, and study tactical play in netball. Our analysis suggests that the binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics. In general, we find that the binomial-match implies greater outcome uncertainty than the Poisson match, for a given scoring-rate, and that an alternating-restart is a good rule for reducing the frequency of tied outcomes. For netball in particular, we show that starting the final quarter with possession in a close, balanced match may confer a significant advantage.

Citation

Baker, R., Chadwick, S., Parma, R., & Scarf, P. (2021). The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 73(8), 1856-1872. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 11, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Jun 21, 2021
• Publication Date: Jun 21, 2021
• Deposit Date: Oct 10, 2022
• Journal: Journal of the Operational Research Society
• Print ISSN: 0160-5682
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Volume: 73
• Issue: 8
• Pages: 1856-1872
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496
• Publisher URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496