R Baker
The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball
Baker, R; Chadwick, S; Parma, R; Scarf, P
Authors
S Chadwick
R Parma
P Scarf
Abstract
We introduce the binomial-match as a model for the bivariate score in a paired-contest. This model is naturally associated with sports in which the restart alternates following a goal. The model is a challenger to the Poisson-match, a pair of independent Poisson random variables whose means are related to the strengths of the competing teams. We use the binomial-match primarily to study the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring-rate, particularly for high values of the scoring-rate. Netball has a high scoring-rate and motivates our model development. In the binomial-match framework, we also evaluate rule-variations, and study tactical play in netball. Our analysis suggests that the binomial-match is not a better forecaster than the Poisson-match, but it is better for representing outcome uncertainty and evaluating rule-variations and tactics. In general, we find that the binomial-match implies greater outcome uncertainty than the Poisson match, for a given scoring-rate, and that an alternating-restart is a good rule for reducing the frequency of tied outcomes. For netball in particular, we show that starting the final quarter with possession in a close, balanced match may confer a significant advantage.
Citation
Baker, R., Chadwick, S., Parma, R., & Scarf, P. (2021). The binomial-match, outcome uncertainty, and the case of netball. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 73(8), 1856-1872. https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Acceptance Date | May 11, 2021 |
Online Publication Date | Jun 21, 2021 |
Publication Date | Jun 21, 2021 |
Deposit Date | Oct 10, 2022 |
Journal | Journal of the Operational Research Society |
Print ISSN | 0160-5682 |
Publisher | Palgrave Macmillan |
Volume | 73 |
Issue | 8 |
Pages | 1856-1872 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496 |
Publisher URL | https://doi.org/10.1080/01605682.2021.1931496 |
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