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Time varying ratings in association football : the all-time greatest team is... (2014)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2015). Time varying ratings in association football : the all-time greatest team is... Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 178(2), 481-492. https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12060

We present a new methodology to estimate time varying team strengths of football teams. Our dynamic model allows for deterministic, rather than stochastic, evolution of team
strengths. We use the model to identify the best team in England since the... Read More about Time varying ratings in association football : the all-time greatest team is....

Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issues and a case study from Spain (2014)
Journal Article
and a case study from Spain. Papers in Regional Science, 95(S1), S127-S142. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12118

Sales are modelled for 50 Spanish provinces over 522 draws of a high prize lotto
game.Acrossed random effects model allows for random shocks specific to particular draws and
to particular provinces. The paper explores how demographic and socio-econ... Read More about Modelling regional lottery sales : methodological issues and a case study from Spain.

The influence of bait presentation on bait uptake by mice (Mus domesticus) in infested urban domestic dwellings (2014)
Journal Article
Murphy, G., Baker, R., Felix-Thomas, A., & Fowler, M. (2014). The influence of bait presentation on bait uptake by mice (Mus domesticus) in infested urban domestic dwellings. International Journal of Pest Management, 60(1), 22-32. https://doi.org/10.1080/09670874.2014.885613

Several researchers have established a link between the presence of house mouse (Mus domesticus) infestations and detrimental effects on human health. Controlling mouse infestations therefore requires methods that are quick, safe and effective. A tam... Read More about The influence of bait presentation on bait uptake by mice (Mus domesticus) in infested urban domestic dwellings.

Statistical application of barycentric rational interpolants : an alternative to splines (2014)
Journal Article
interpolants : an alternative to splines. Computational Statistics, 29(5), 1065-1081. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-014-0480-7

Spline curves, originally developed by numerical analysts for interpolation,
are widely used in statistical work, mainly as regression splines and smoothing
splines. Barycentric rational interpolants have recently been developed by numerical
analy... Read More about Statistical application of barycentric rational interpolants : an alternative to splines.

Endoscopic balloon dilatation of Crohnʼs Disease strictures (2014)
Journal Article
Bhalme, M., Sarkar, S., Lal, S., Bodger, K., Baker, R., & Willert, R. (2014). Endoscopic balloon dilatation of Crohnʼs Disease strictures. Inflammatory Bowel Diseases, 20(2), 265-270. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.MIB.0000439067.76964.53

Introduction: Stricturing is a common complication of Crohn's disease. Endoscopic balloon dilatation (EBD) offers a valuable alternative to surgical intervention, but there are limited data on factors influencing its safety and efficacy.

Methods:... Read More about Endoscopic balloon dilatation of Crohnʼs Disease strictures.

A dynamic paired comparisons model : who is the greatest tennis player? (2014)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2014). A dynamic paired comparisons model : who is the greatest tennis player?. European Journal of Operational Research, 236(2), 677-684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.12.028

We present a methodology for fitting time-varying paired comparisons models in which the parameters are allowed to vary deterministically, as opposed to stochastically, with time. Our dynamic paired comparisons model is based on a new closed-form for... Read More about A dynamic paired comparisons model : who is the greatest tennis player?.

Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty : improving the Kelly criterion (2013)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2013). Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty : improving the Kelly criterion. Decision Analysis, 10(3), 189-199. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2013.0271

The Kelly betting criterion ignores uncertainty in the probability of winning the bet and uses an estimated probability. In general, such replacement of population parameters by sample estimates gives poorer out-of-sample than in-sample performance.... Read More about Optimal betting under parameter uncertainty : improving the Kelly criterion.

A sensitivity analysis framework for the treatment effect measure used in the meta-analysis of comparative binary data from randomised controlled trials (2013)
Journal Article
data from randomised controlled trials. Statistics in Medicine, 32(6), 931-940. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.5591

The process of undertaking a meta-analysis involves a sequence of decisions, one of which is deciding which
measure of treatment effect to use. In particular, for comparative binary data from randomised controlled trials,
a wide variety of measures... Read More about A sensitivity analysis framework for the treatment effect measure used in the meta-analysis of comparative binary data from randomised controlled trials.

Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games (2012)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2013). Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(1), 122-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.07.002

The paper presents a point process model for predicting exact end-of-match scores in the premier league of American football, the National Football League. The hazards of scoring are allowed to vary with team statistics from previous games and/or the... Read More about Forecasting exact scores in National Football League games.

How good is Tiger Woods? (2012)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2012). How good is Tiger Woods?. Mathematics today, 48(3), 124-126

A major objective of professional sport is to find out which player or team is the best. Unfortunately the structure of some sports means that this is often a
difficult question to answer. For example, there may be too many competitors to run a rou... Read More about How good is Tiger Woods?.

Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging (LDI). Part 1: Derivation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation (2012)
Journal Article
Pape, S., Baker, R., Wilson, D., Hoeksema, H., Jeng, J., Spence, R., & Monstrey, S. (2012). Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging (LDI). Part 1: Derivation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation. Burns, 38(2), 187-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2010.11.009

Laser Doppler imaging produces a colour-coded image of dermal blood flow, which can be used to quantify the inflammatory response in a burn. The original colour palette had arbitrary boundaries, which inexperienced clinicians found difficult to inter... Read More about Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging (LDI). Part 1: Derivation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation.

Effects of ramp negotiation, paving type and shoe sole geometry on toe clearance in young adults (2011)
Journal Article
Thies, S., Jones, R., Kenney, L., Howard, D., & Baker, R. (2011). Effects of ramp negotiation, paving type and shoe sole geometry on toe clearance in young adults. Journal of Biomechanics, 44(15), 2679-2684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbiomech.2011.07.027

Trips are a major cause of falls and result from involuntary contact of the foot with the ground during the swing phase of gait. Adequate toe clearance during swing is therefore crucial for safe locomotion. To date, little is known about the effects... Read More about Effects of ramp negotiation, paving type and shoe sole geometry on toe clearance in young adults.

Biomechanics for inclusive urban design : effects of tactile paving on older adults’ gait when crossing the street (2011)
Journal Article
Thies, S., Kenney, L., Howard, D., Nester, C., Ormerod, M., Newton, R., …Maclennan, H. (2011). Biomechanics for inclusive urban design : effects of tactile paving on older adults’ gait when crossing the street. Journal of Biomechanics, 44(8), 1599-1604. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbiomech.2010.12.016

In light of our ageing population it is important that the urban environment is easily accessible and hence supports older adults’ independence. Tactile ‘blister’ paving was originally designed to provide guidance for visually impaired people at pede... Read More about Biomechanics for inclusive urban design : effects of tactile paving on older adults’ gait when crossing the street.

Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players using a combination preference model for conscious selection (2011)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Mchale, I. (2011). Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players using a combination preference model for conscious selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 174(4), 1071-1086. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2011.00693.x

Conscious selection describes the process by which lottery players choose numbers non-randomly on their tickets. The only theoretical model that has been produced to date models conscious selection as number preference; for example players may tend t... Read More about Investigating the behavioural characteristics of lottery players using a combination preference model for conscious selection.

Ministry of Education of Oman : examinations marks and their relationships with educational indicators (2011)
Thesis
AL-Hosni, M. Ministry of Education of Oman : examinations marks and their relationships with educational indicators. (Thesis). University of Salford

This study aims to provide a comprehensive view of the national educational system, and then to determine the values of some internationally-used indicators within Oman's schools, and their effects upon student performance in the 12 th grade examinat... Read More about Ministry of Education of Oman : examinations marks and their relationships with educational indicators.

Economic downturns and the determination of portfolio asset allocation (2011)
Thesis
Syed Salim, S. M. N. B. Economic downturns and the determination of portfolio asset allocation. (Thesis). Salford : University of Salford

A most common question in finance, particularly in
investment perspective, is how an investor should allocate
his wealth. Robert C. Merton (1975) remarks that the quest
for an answer to the problem of lifetime consumption a... Read More about Economic downturns and the determination of portfolio asset allocation.

Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging. Part 2: Validation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation (2011)
Journal Article
Monstrey, S., Hoeksema, H., Baker, R., Jeng, J., Spence, R., Wilson, D., & Pape, S. (2011). Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging. Part 2: Validation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation. Burns, 37(2), 249-256. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.burns.2010.08.013

Laser Doppler imaging (LDI) has been investigated and used since 1993 for the assessment of burn wounds. Here we describe tests that validate use of the dedicated colour palette, derived in Part 1, for a standardised interpretation of LDI images for... Read More about Burn wound healing time assessed by laser Doppler imaging. Part 2: Validation of a dedicated colour code for image interpretation.