A dynamic model for evaluating the effects of changes in eating and physical activity on childhood obesity

Abdin, NZ

Abstract

Obesity is a term used to describe the condition of excess fat. It has many dangerous side
effects for health and well-being. Knowing the negative impacts of obesity, this research
attempts to demonstrate the contribution offered by system dynamics modelling with the model
being used as an experimentation tool to investigate the combined impact of eating and
physical activity behaviour on average weight, body mass index and the prevalence of obesity
trends of the English child population aged 2 to 15 years. In an effort to uncover the most
effective interventions to achieve desirable weight targets by 2020, this study considers how
modifications in the forces which influence behaviour might be modelled at the population
level; this is an emerging interest in the system dynamics community. This research combines
different strands of knowledge from nutrition, physical activity, body metabolism and sociopsychological
theory, synthesising this knowledge in a system dynamics model by highlighting
the interrelations between these various strands in one complex human weight regulation
system. The model offers unique insights into the dynamics by capturing the complex
interdependencies from the stock and flow feedback structure, non-linear relationships and
delays, all of which exist in the public health system surrounding obesity. The results from this
research support previous studies in this area. However, this study also highlights causal
explanations for the variability of the findings which had not been surfaced before. In respect
of the baseline model it is assumed that the weight profile of the English child population was
not particularly abnormal around forty years ago. However, with increases in energy-dense
food consumption, especially from fat and outside meals, combined with reductions in physical
activity and an increase in sedentary behaviour at the same time, the average weight, body mass
index and obesity trends have increased dramatically, especially so since the 1990s. Findings
from this research also provide insights that a combination of modifying food intake, reducing
sedentary behaviour and increasing physical activity form the basis of the most effective
interventions for obesity control in the English child population. This research also suggests a
definite failure to achieve a reversion of 2020 obesity data to that observed in 2000. The model
indicates that a much longer intervention period will be needed to significantly reduce
overweight and obesity in this population. Governments and other public agencies need to carry
out modelling studies before setting public health targets. Finally, this research also highlights
parents' contribution to ameliorating childhood obesity.

Citation

Abdin, N. A dynamic model for evaluating the effects of changes in eating and physical activity on childhood obesity. (Thesis). University of Salford

• Thesis Type: Thesis
• Deposit Date: Aug 5, 2021
• Additional Information: Funders : Ministry of Higher Education, Malaysia;Universiti Utara Malaysia
• Award Date: Sep 1, 2012