Time-varying ratings for international football teams

Baker, RD; McHale, IG

Abstract

We present a model for rating international football teams. Using data from 1944 to 2016, we ask `which was the greatest team?'. To answer the question requires some sophisticated methodology.
Specifically, we have used k-fold cross-validation, which allows us to optimally down-weight the results of friendly matches in explaining World Cup results. In addition to the central aim of the paper, we also discuss, from a philosophical perspective, situations in which model over-fitting is perhaps desirable. Results suggest that Hungary in 1952, is a strong candidate for the all-time greatest international football team.

Citation

Baker, R., & McHale, I. (2017). Time-varying ratings for international football teams. European Journal of Operational Research, 267(2), 659-666. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 21, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Dec 12, 2017
• Publication Date: Dec 12, 2017
• Deposit Date: Dec 13, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Dec 12, 2019
• Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
• Print ISSN: 0377-2217
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Volume: 267
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 659-666
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2017.11.042
• Related Public URLs: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/european-journal-of-operational-research