A study of postponed replacement in a delay time model

Berrade, MD; Scarf, PA; Cavalcante, CAV

Abstract

We develop a delay time model for a one component system with postponed replacement to analyze situations in which maintenance might not be executed immediately upon discovery of a defect in the system. Reasons for postponement are numerous: to avoid production disruption or unnecessary or ineffective replacement; to prepare for replacement; to extend component life; to wait for an opportunity. This paper explores conditions that make postponement cost-effective. We are interested in modelling the reality in which a maintainer either prioritizes functional continuity or is not confident of the inspection test indicating a defective state. In some cases more frequent inspection and a longer time limit for postponement are recommended to take advantage of maintenance opportunities, characterized by their low cost, arising after a positive inspection. However, when the cost of failure increases, a significant reduction in the time limit of postponement interval is observed. The examples reveal that both the time to defect arrival and delay time have a significant effect upon the cost-effectiveness of maintenance at the limit of postponement. Also, more simply, we find that opportunities must occur frequently enough and inspection should be a high quality procedure to risk postponement.

Citation

Berrade, M., Scarf, P., & Cavalcante, C. (2017). A study of postponed replacement in a delay time model. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 168, 70-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.04.006

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 11, 2017
• Online Publication Date: Apr 18, 2017
• Publication Date: Dec 1, 2017
• Deposit Date: Apr 19, 2017
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 18, 2018
• Journal: Reliability Engineering & System Safety
• Print ISSN: 0951-8320
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Volume: 168
• Pages: 70-79
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.04.006
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2017.04.006
• Related Public URLs: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety