Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket

Scarf, PA; Shi, X

Abstract

This paper considers the problem of timing the declaration of the third innings in test cricket. Data on
the outcomes of recent test matches are analysed in order to develop simple decision support tools. The
first of these tools presents match outcome probabilities given the position of the match at a potential
declaration point. These probabilities are determined using a multinomial logistic regression model that
is fitted to the test match data. This idea is then extended to consider progress towards a declaration—
match outcome probabilities are considered as a function of target aimed for and run-rate. The decision
tools have been implemented on a spreadsheet and example calculations are presented. The modelling
described has the potential for practical use in test matches.

Citation

Scarf, P., & Shi, X. (2005). Modelling match outcomes and decision support for setting a final innings target in test cricket. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 16(2), 161-178. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi010

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2005
• Deposit Date: Oct 6, 2011
• Journal: IMA Journal of Management Mathematics
• Print ISSN: 1471-678X
• Publisher: Oxford University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 16
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 161-178
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi010
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi010