On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket

Scarf, PA; Shi, X; Akhtar, S

Abstract

Negative binomial distributions are fitted to partnership scores and innings scores in test cricket. For partnership scores, we use a parametric model that allows us to consider run rate as a covariate in the distribution of runs scored and hence to use run rate as a surrogate for batting strategy. Then we describe the implied influence of run rate on match outcome probabilities given the state of the match at some point during the third innings; we refer to such a point in the match as the current position. Match outcome probabilities are calculated by using a model for the outcome given the end of the third-innings position, and a model for transitions from the current position to the end of the third-innings position, with transition probabilities considered as a function of run rate. Although the run rate is not wholly in the control of the batting side, our approach at least allows a captain or team analyst to consider the match outcome probability if the team can bat towards a target at a particular run rate. This will then at least indicate whether an aggressive or defensive batting strategy is desirable.

Citation

Scarf, P., Shi, X., & Akhtar, S. (2010). On the distribution of runs scored and batting strategy in test cricket. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00672.x

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Jan 1, 2010
• Deposit Date: Oct 6, 2011
• Publicly Available Date: Apr 5, 2016
• Journal: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)
• Print ISSN: 09641998
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 174
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 471-497
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00672.x
• Keywords: Cricket, logistic regression, negative binomial distribution, strategy
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00672.x