System dynamics models in the process of corporate and public policy

Dangerfield, BC

Abstract

The thesis is a contribution to the literature on policymaking in
business and government. By a critical examination of relevant published
work in the field and by specific examples it seeks to demonstrate how
the system dynamics modelling methodology can contribute to an
improvement in the process of corporate and public policy design.
It is argued that the relative lack of use of models in the policy
process may now be reversed. This is, in part, because of the development
of user-friendly interactive modelling software on personal computers
together with large screen colour projection facilities. But the
most important stimulus to the fulfilment of the potential of modelling
work in these areas will come with a realisation by policy makers of the
proper role of the model in the overall process. This is a central tenet
of the thesis: the model provides a fulcrum for debate and enhanced
understanding and should never be viewed as an 'answer generator'. All
too often miscasting models in this latter role has, in the author's
view, seriously affected their adoption at the strategic policy level.
Three specific examples are used to support the above line of argument.
These are concerned with:
M Technology policy and planning in the steel industry. A model is
devised which addresses the crucial role of the blast furnace in an
integrated steel works. The pursuit of economies of scale has led to
larger and larger furnaces being installed. Given the often cyclical
nature of customer demand for steel, together with forced interruptions
to production in order to periodically reline the furnaces, it is argued
that larger production units are not necessarily advisable.
(ii) Public policy considerations arising from the AIDS epidemic. The
spread of AIDS and the implications of this for health planning has taxed
governments worldwide. A model is presented which captures the spread of
HIV disease within the U. K. homosexual population and policy issues
arising from model runs are discussed. This is in contrast to some other
models which attempt to 9forecast2 the progress of the epidemic.
(iii) Financial policy in a firm which failed (Laker Airways). This
example differs from the other two in that the policy issues surrounding
the firm's financial management are directed at students. They are the
'clients' who would want to use this model in order to explore the
implications of alternative strategic policies. System dynamics models
of a real-life case study can be usefully harnessed in such a pedagogic
role.

Citation

Dangerfield, B. System dynamics models in the process of corporate and public policy. (Thesis). University of Salford

• Thesis Type: Thesis
• Deposit Date: Sep 22, 2011
• Publicly Available Date: Sep 22, 2011
• Award Date: Jan 1, 1991