JA Evans
Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007)
Evans, JA; Ivaldi, G
Authors
G Ivaldi
Abstract
This article identifies an issue model forecasting Extreme Right results in France between 1984 and 2007. Building upon the VP-function literature, the article looks to develop a model of electoral support for the Front National and Jean-Marie Le Pen, based upon the key political issues which are seen as motivating votes for this party: unemployment, crime and immigration. Controlling for political context through election type and opposition popularity, we find that the vote is linked to variation in macro-indicators of these issues and that consequently the Extreme Right vote in France is far from unpredictable, as some analyses have previously suggested.
Citation
Evans, J., & Ivaldi, G. (2008). Forecasting the extreme right vote in France (1984-2007). French Politics, 6, 137-151. https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2008.1
| Journal Article Type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Date | Jul 1, 2008 |
| Deposit Date | Oct 13, 2010 |
| Journal | French Politics |
| Print ISSN | 1476-3419 |
| Publisher | Palgrave Macmillan |
| Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
| Volume | 6 |
| Pages | 137-151 |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1057/fp.2008.1 |
| Publisher URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/fp.2008.1 |