Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy

Dangerfield, BC; Fang, Y; Roberts, CA

Authors

BC Dangerfield

Y Fang

CA Roberts



Abstract

A system dynamics model of HIV/AIDS epidemiology is employed to simulate the effects of triple combination antiretroviral therapy in the treatment of HIV/AIDS. The epidemic data on homosexual men in the UK (1981--1998) have been used to fit the baseline model. The new combination therapies, which supplanted antiviral mono and dual therapy in 1996, are proving to be the most effective prophylaxis yet for halting viral replication in vivo, but many uncertainties still surround their use. A range of model-generated scenarios are created as a means of considering these uncertainties. Possible futures for the HIV/AIDS epidemic are constructed.

Citation

Dangerfield, B., Fang, Y., & Roberts, C. (2001). Model-based scenarios for the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: the consequences of highly active antiretroviral therapy. System Dynamics Review, 17(2), 119-150. https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.211

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Jun 1, 2001
Deposit Date Aug 22, 2007
Journal System Dynamics Review
Print ISSN 0883-7066
Publisher Wiley
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 17
Issue 2
Pages 119-150
DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/sdr.211
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1002/sdr.211



Downloadable Citations