RD Baker
Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests
Baker, RD; Scarf, PA
Authors
PA Scarf
Abstract
Data from 20 sporting contests in which the same two teams compete regularly are studied. Strong and weak symmetry requirements for possible models are identified, and some simple models are proposed and fitted to the data. The need to compute the exact likelihood function and the presence of missing values make this non-trivial. Forecasting match outcomes by using the models can give a modest improvement over a naïve forecast. Significance tests for studying the effect of `match covariates' such as playing at home or away or winning the toss are introduced, and the effect of these covariates is in general found to be quite large.
Citation
Baker, R., & Scarf, P. (2006). Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 55(2), 225-239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00525.x
Journal Article Type | Article |
---|---|
Publication Date | Mar 2, 2006 |
Deposit Date | Aug 21, 2007 |
Journal | Journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series C Applied Statistics |
Print ISSN | 0035-9254 |
Publisher | Wiley |
Peer Reviewed | Peer Reviewed |
Volume | 55 |
Issue | 2 |
Pages | 225-239 |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00525.x |
Keywords | Akaike information criterion; Cricket; Exact tests; Football; Generalized linear models; Rugby; Sporting contests |
Publisher URL | http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00525.x |
Related Public URLs | http://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/hub/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-9876/ |
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