The Application of the Path to Intended Violence Model and the TRAP-18 in the Case of the Christchurch Mosque Shooter

Allely, Clare; Wicks, Sammie; McLaren, Sonya

Abstract

Objectives and Method: In this case analysis, we applied the Path to Intended Violence model (PTIV) and the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18) in order to study the 28-year-old shooter (herein referred to as BT) who perpetrated two consecutive mass shootings at mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand, during Friday Prayer on 15 March 2019. Results: Based on our analysis of the case using the PTIV model, it is clear that BT had significant grievances (Stage 1) which led him to the second stage of the model, Violent Ideation. In this second stage, BT joined online forums of like-minded individuals and saw violence as being his only option to address his grievances. He also read about previous mass shooters and was inspired by them. Regarding the threat assessment using the TRAP-18, in the week before his attack, BT exhibited five of the eight proximal warning behaviors including: pathway, fixation, identification, energy burst and last resort. In the same week, he exhibited seven distal characteristics. Implications: Based on their effectiveness as exemplified in this case, we recommend the application of the TRAP-18 and the PTIV model to individuals of concern.

Citation

Allely, C., Wicks, S., & McLaren, S. (2024). The Application of the Path to Intended Violence Model and the TRAP-18 in the Case of the Christchurch Mosque Shooter. Journal of Threat Assessment and Management, 11(1), 32–47. https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000211

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jun 17, 2023
• Online Publication Date: Mar 1, 2024
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2024
• Deposit Date: Jun 19, 2023
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 1, 2024
• Journal: Journal of Threat Assessment and Management
• Print ISSN: 2169-4842
• Publisher: American Psychological Association
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 32–47
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1037/tam0000211
• Keywords: Path to Intended Violence; Mass Shootings; Mass Murder; Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol; TRAP-18; lone-actor terrorism.
• Publisher URL: https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/tam