Optimizing the Temperature Sensitivity of the Isoprene Emission Model MEGAN in Different Ecosystems Using a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method

DiMaria, CA; Jones, DBA; Ferracci, V; Bloom, AA; Wordon, HM; Seco, R; Verrikkat, L; Yáñez-Serrano, AM; Guenther, AB; Araujo, A; Goldstein, AH; Langford, B; Cash, J; Harris, NRP; Brown, Luke; Rinnan, R; Schobesberger, S; Holst, T; Mak, JE

Abstract

Isoprene is a reactive hydrocarbon emitted to the atmosphere in large quantities by terrestrial vegetation. Annual total isoprene emissions exceed 300 Tg a−1, but emission rates vary widely among plant species and are sensitive to meteorological and environmental conditions including temperature, sunlight, and soil moisture. Due to its high reactivity, isoprene has a large impact on air quality and climate pollutants such as ozone and aerosols. It is also an important sink for the hydroxyl radical which impacts the lifetime of the important greenhouse gas methane along with many other trace gas species. Modeling the impacts of isoprene emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate requires accurate isoprene emission estimates. These can be obtained using the empirical Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), but the parameterization of this model is uncertain due in part to limited field observations. In this study, we use ground-based measurements of isoprene concentrations and fluxes from 11 field sites to assess the variability of the isoprene emission temperature response across ecosystems. We then use these observations in a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MHMCMC) data assimilation framework to optimize the MEGAN temperature response function. We find that the performance of MEGAN can be significantly improved at several high-latitude field sites by increasing the modeled sensitivity of isoprene emissions to past temperatures. At some sites, the optimized model was nearly four times more sensitive to temperature than the unoptimized model. This has implications for air quality modeling in a warming climate.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Apr 24, 2025
• Online Publication Date: May 13, 2025
• Publication Date: May 13, 2025
• Deposit Date: May 17, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: May 19, 2025
• Print ISSN: 2169-8953
• Electronic ISSN: 2169-8961
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 130
• Issue: 5
• Article Number: e2025JG008806
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JG008806