On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport : the case of international rugby union

Scarf, PA; Parma, R; McHale, IG

Abstract

In this paper we investigate the relationship between outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in the framework of a “Poisson match”. We argue that increasing scoring rates in the hope of increasing entertainment may have a detrimental impact on the popularity of sport. The basis of our argument is that higher scoring-rates decrease outcome uncertainty. We use international rugby to demonstrate our findings and show that scoring rates have indeed increased significantly over the previous half-century in this sport. Therefore, administrators should recognise our general point and we suggest that rugby union administrators in particular ought to consider the introduction of new laws to reduce scoring-rates. Scenarios in which the scoring-rate is radically reduced are illustrated through a simulation of the Rugby World Cup tournament.

Citation

Scarf, P., Parma, R., & McHale, I. (2019). On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport : the case of international rugby union. European Journal of Operational Research, 273(2), 721-730. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Aug 14, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Aug 23, 2018
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2019
• Deposit Date: Aug 15, 2018
• Publicly Available Date: Aug 23, 2020
• Journal: European Journal of Operational Research
• Print ISSN: 0377-2217
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Volume: 273
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 721-730
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021
• Publisher URL: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.08.021
• Related Public URLs: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/european-journal-of-operational-research