To lead or not to lead : analysis of the sprint in track cycling

Moffatt, JL; Scarf, PA; Passfield, L; McHale, IG; Zhang, K

Abstract

This paper uses a statistical analysis of match sprint outcomes to guide tactical decisions in this highly tactical contest and to provide competitors and coaches with a potential, marginal gain. Logistic regression models are developed to predict the probability of the leading rider winning at different points of the race, based on how the race proceeds up to each point. Key tactics are successfully identified from the models, including how the leading rider might hold the lead and how the following rider might optimise overtaking.

Citation

Moffatt, J., Scarf, P., Passfield, L., McHale, I., & Zhang, K. To lead or not to lead : analysis of the sprint in track cycling. Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(2), 161-172. https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0112

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Deposit Date: Oct 15, 2013
• Publicly Available Date: Oct 15, 2013
• Journal: Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
• Print ISSN: 1559-0410
• Publisher: De Gruyter
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 10
• Issue: 2
• Pages: 161-172
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0112
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jqas-2013-0112
• Related Public URLs: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas
• Additional Information: Funders : Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC)