Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout

Evans, JA; Ivaldi, G

Abstract

Turnout is a key indicator in European Parliament elections, in the absence of a direct executive outcome. Forecasting turnout is an important exercise in requiring the identification of a parsimonious model with good lead time from the array of structural, demographic and attitudinal variables employed in rich explanatory models of turnout, and simultaneously minimising prediction error. Building on a series of regression models using aggregate data, this paper explores the applicability of such an approach to turnout in the EU-27 countries, and considers the explanatory added value which deriving such a forecast model can also provide.

Citation

Evans, J., & Ivaldi, G. (2011). Deriving a forecast model for European election turnout. Political Research Quarterly, 65(4), 855-867. https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911421016

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Online Publication Date: Sep 30, 2011
• Publication Date: Sep 30, 2011
• Deposit Date: Oct 7, 2011
• Journal: Political Research Quarterly
• Print ISSN: 1065-9129
• Publisher: SAGE Publications
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 65
• Issue: 4
• Pages: 855-867
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/1065912911421016
• Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1065912911421016
• Related Public URLs: http://prq.sagepub.com/