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An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals (2008)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2008). An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 99(10), 2312-2327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2008.02.019

A new system of multivariate distributions with fixed marginal distributions is introduced via the consideration of random variates that are randomly chosen pairs of order statistics of the marginal distributions. The distributions allow arbitrary po... Read More about An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals.

Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement? (2008)
Journal Article
Lindsay, S., Bellaby, P., Smith, S., & Baker, R. (2008). Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement?. Health, 12(3), 313-331. https://doi.org/10.1177/1363459308090051

The White Paper Choosing health acknowledges that there is no lack of information in the system about healthy lifestyles, but the manner of communication of risk and the level of support for lifestyle change need improvement. Action also has to be ta... Read More about Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement?.

Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation (2008)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2008). Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 37(14), 2162-2176. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610920801892014

The Schlömilch transformation, long used by mathematicians for integral evaluation, allows probability mass to be redistributed, thus transforming old distributions to new ones. The transformation is used to introduce some new families of distributio... Read More about Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation.

Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance (2007)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Belgorodski, A. (2007). Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 18(4), 413-433. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpm023

We use regression methods to predict the expected monthly return on stocks and the covariance matrix of returns, the predictor variables being a company's ‘fundamentals’, such as dividend yield and the history of previous returns. Predictions are eva... Read More about Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance.

Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme (2007)
Thesis
Belgorodski, A. Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme. (Thesis). Salford : University of Salford

The area of finance poses many challenging problems to the decision maker. One of them is the modelling of the expected return on stocks and the covariance matrix of returns. This thesis approaches the decision problem of choosing an optimum portfo... Read More about Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme.

Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies (2006)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Jackson, D. (2006). Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies. Biometrics, 62(3), 785-792. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00513.x

Publication bias of the results of medical studies can invalidate evidence-based medicine. The existing methodology for modeling this essentially relies upon the symmetry of the funnel plot. We present a new method of modeling publication bias that u... Read More about Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies.

Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests (2006)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Scarf, P. (2006). Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 55(2), 225-239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00525.x

Data from 20 sporting contests in which the same two teams compete regularly are studied. Strong and weak symmetry requirements for possible models are identified, and some simple models are proposed and fitted to the data. The need to compute the ex... Read More about Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests.

Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem (2005)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2005). Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 17(2), 99-113. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi028

The concept of a risk-averse maintenance policy is introduced, and two approaches to modelling it are discussed, the first being via utility functions, and the second via inflation of the costs of unscheduled failures. After introducing a general met... Read More about Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem.

Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model (2003)
Journal Article
Fox, R., & Baker, R. (2003). Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model. International Transactions in Operational Research, 10(2), 115-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-3995.00398

Net Present Value (NPV) is the principal valuation model of the financial literature. Firms are accordingly directed, as a matter of good practice, to adopt the model for selecting investment projects, yet questionnaire surveys show that the adoption... Read More about Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model.

Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost? (1995)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Scarf, P. (1995). Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost?. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 6(1), 3-12. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/6.1.3

In a general context of maintenance modelling, the excess cost of operating at the estimated optimum value of some decision variable (as opposed to the true unknown optimum) is related to the sample size of the dataset available for modelling. Alth... Read More about Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost?.

Multi-period market risk estimation and performance evaluation : evidence from univariate, multi-variate and options data
Thesis
Iqbal, R. (in press). Multi-period market risk estimation and performance evaluation : evidence from univariate, multi-variate and options data. (Thesis). University of Salford

There are different risk management approaches available, as different firms have different risk goals. Value at risk (VaR) is the most frequently used risk measure for asset or portfolio risk and certainly, per the Basel framework, is a preferred me... Read More about Multi-period market risk estimation and performance evaluation : evidence from univariate, multi-variate and options data.

Mathematical modelling with generalised logarithm and exponential functions
Journal Article
Baker, R. Mathematical modelling with generalised logarithm and exponential functions. Mathematics today, 50(2), 98-101

That `elementary transcendental function', the logarithm, is a very familiar function, that we learn early on, and I can still recall a mathematics teacher at school telling the class solemnly that `all logarithms are indices'. It seemed like a... Read More about Mathematical modelling with generalised logarithm and exponential functions.

Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time
Journal Article
performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 9(11), https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-9-11

Background Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this... Read More about Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time.