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Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain (2010)
Journal Article
Forrest, D., Perez, L., & Baker, R. (2010). Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain. ˜The œjournal of gambling business and economics (Print), 4(2), 1-19

In February, 2005 the Spanish National Lottery Agency (LAE) made several modifications to the design of one of its lotto games. The entry fee was not changed but the familiar 6/49 format was replaced by 5/54 + 1/10. This considerably lengthened the o... Read More about Evaluating the effects of game design on lotto sales: a case study from Spain.

Risk aversion in maintenance: a utility-based approach (2010)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2010). Risk aversion in maintenance: a utility-based approach. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 21(4), 319-332. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpn013

In the author's concept of risk-averse maintenance, introduced in a previous paper, we seek to minimize the disutility of cost per unit time rather than to minimize cost per unit time itself. This gives a maintenance policy that is optimal under risk... Read More about Risk aversion in maintenance: a utility-based approach.

Inference for meta-analysis with a suspected temporal trend (2010)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Jackson, D. (2010). Inference for meta-analysis with a suspected temporal trend. Biometrical Journal, 52(4), 538-551. https://doi.org/10.1002/bimj.200900307

There is sometimes a clear evidence of a strong secular trend in the treatment effect of studies included in a meta-analysis. In such cases, estimating the present-day treatment effect by meta-regression is both reasonable and straightforward. We how... Read More about Inference for meta-analysis with a suspected temporal trend.

The health impact of an online heart disease support group: A comparison of moderated vs. unmoderated support (2009)
Journal Article
group: A comparison of moderated vs. unmoderated support. Health Education Research, 24(4), 646-654. https://doi.org/10.1093/her/cyp001

The aim of this study was to assess whether our
online closed community heart care support
group and information resource could sustain
changes in health behaviour after the moderators
withdrew their support. Heart patients (n 5
108) living in a... Read More about The health impact of an online heart disease support group: A comparison of moderated vs. unmoderated support.

An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals (2008)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2008). An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 99(10), 2312-2327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2008.02.019

A new system of multivariate distributions with fixed marginal distributions is introduced via the consideration of random variates that are randomly chosen pairs of order statistics of the marginal distributions. The distributions allow arbitrary po... Read More about An order-statistics-based method for constructing multivariate distributions with fixed marginals.

Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation (2008)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2008). Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, 37(14), 2162-2176. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610920801892014

The Schlömilch transformation, long used by mathematicians for integral evaluation, allows probability mass to be redistributed, thus transforming old distributions to new ones. The transformation is used to introduce some new families of distributio... Read More about Probabilistic applications of the Schlomilch transformation.

A new approach to outliers in meta-analysis (2008)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Jackson, D. (2008). A new approach to outliers in meta-analysis. Health Care Management Science, 11(2), 121-131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-007-9041-8

The synthesis of evidence from trials and medical studies using meta-analysis is essential for Evidence Based Medicine. However, problematical outlying results often occur even under the random-effects model. We propose a model that allows a long-tai... Read More about A new approach to outliers in meta-analysis.

Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement? (2008)
Journal Article
Lindsay, S., Bellaby, P., Smith, S., & Baker, R. (2008). Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement?. Health, 12(3), 313-331. https://doi.org/10.1177/1363459308090051

The White Paper Choosing health acknowledges that there is no lack of information in the system about healthy lifestyles, but the manner of communication of risk and the level of support for lifestyle change need improvement. Action also has to be ta... Read More about Enabling healthy choices: Is ICT the highway to health improvement?.

Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance (2007)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Belgorodski, A. (2007). Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 18(4), 413-433. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpm023

We use regression methods to predict the expected monthly return on stocks and the covariance matrix of returns, the predictor variables being a company's ‘fundamentals’, such as dividend yield and the history of previous returns. Predictions are eva... Read More about Predicting stock returns and assessing prediction performance.

Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme (2007)
Thesis
Belgorodski, A. Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme. (Thesis). Salford : University of Salford

The area of finance poses many challenging problems to the decision maker. One of them
is the modelling of the expected return on stocks and the covariance matrix of returns.
This thesis approaches the decision problem of choosing an optimum portfo... Read More about Statistical aspects of the portfolio construction programme.

Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies (2006)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Jackson, D. (2006). Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies. Biometrics, 62(3), 785-792. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-0420.2005.00513.x

Publication bias of the results of medical studies can invalidate evidence-based medicine. The existing methodology for modeling this essentially relies upon the symmetry of the funnel plot. We present a new method of modeling publication bias that u... Read More about Using journal impact factors to correct for the publication bias of medical studies.

Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests (2006)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Scarf, P. (2006). Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 55(2), 225-239. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9876.2006.00525.x

Data from 20 sporting contests in which the same two teams compete regularly are studied. Strong and weak symmetry requirements for possible models are identified, and some simple models are proposed and fitted to the data. The need to compute the ex... Read More about Predicting the outcomes of annual sporting contests.

Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem (2005)
Journal Article
Baker, R. (2005). Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 17(2), 99-113. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpi028

The concept of a risk-averse maintenance policy is introduced, and two approaches to modelling it are discussed, the first being via utility functions, and the second via inflation of the costs of unscheduled failures. After introducing a general met... Read More about Risk aversion in maintenance : overmaintenance and the principal-agent problem.

Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model (2003)
Journal Article
Fox, R., & Baker, R. (2003). Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model. International Transactions in Operational Research, 10(2), 115-126. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-3995.00398

Net Present Value (NPV) is the principal valuation model of the financial literature. Firms are accordingly directed, as a matter of good practice, to adopt the model for selecting investment projects, yet questionnaire surveys show that the adoption... Read More about Capital investment appraisal: a new risk premium model.

Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost? (1995)
Journal Article
Baker, R., & Scarf, P. (1995). Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost?. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 6(1), 3-12. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/6.1.3

In a general context of maintenance modelling, the excess cost of operating at the
estimated optimum value of some decision variable (as opposed to the true unknown
optimum) is related to the sample size of the dataset available for modelling. Alth... Read More about Can models fitted to small data samples lead to maintenance policies with near-optimum cost?.

Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time
Journal Article
performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 9(11), https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2288-9-11

Background

Laser-Doppler imaging (LDI) of cutaneous blood flow is beginning to be used by burn surgeons to predict the healing time of burn wounds; predicted healing time is used to determine wound treatment as either dressings or surgery. In this... Read More about Using ordinal logistic regression to evaluate the performance of laser-Doppler predictions of burn-healing time.